Occupiers are no longer able to replenish their losses on the front, which threatens the Russian Federation with total mobilization and, as a consequence, riots within Russia.
War in Ukraine / © TSN
The war in Ukraine will end when Russia’s resource capacity reaches a critical limit. To do this, it is necessary to destroy at least half of the Russian Federation’s oil infrastructure and increase the enemy’s losses on the front to a level that provokes total mobilization and riots.
This was stated by Advisor to the Head of the Office of the President Mykhailo Podolyak in an interview with Novyny.LIVE.
The first and most important step is the destruction of the enemy’s economic base, particularly the oil industry. According to Podolyak, Ukraine is actively working in this direction, launching long-range strikes on Russian oil refineries (ORFs), and such attacks will become more frequent.
For Russia, the global price of oil will not matter, even if it reaches over $100 per barrel, because the key problem lies in the physical impossibility of exporting raw materials.
“If Russia has $100 per barrel, then according to their calculations, they will receive an additional $58 billion to the budget. But the question is, what will they be able to ship? If they can’t, then even a price of a thousand per barrel won’t help Russia,” emphasizes the Advisor to the Head of the OP.
To achieve maximum effect, it is necessary to destroy more than 50% of the Russian oil transportation system. Currently, as Podolyak noted, about 20-25% has been destroyed. The work is being carried out comprehensively: in parallel with the logistics and transport system, oil ports and transshipment facilities, Ukrainian forces are also destroying Russian missile defense systems. It is these facilities that generate the money that the Kremlin directly spends on the war.
Manpower Shortage and Fear of Riots
The second, no less important component of the Russian Federation’s defeat is critical losses of the Russian army on the front. Russia is fighting exclusively with “manpower,” so the depletion of human resources is fatal for the occupiers.
Podolyak spoke about the mathematics of enemy losses. Ukrainian forces aimed to destroy about 35,000 occupiers monthly. Approximately the same amount was recruited by Russia through recruitment and covert mobilization to break even. However, the situation for Moscow began to deteriorate.
“In January and February, they did not recruit 15-16 thousand, meaning they are already experiencing a manpower shortage,” stressed the Advisor to the Head of the OP.
If this shortage becomes chronic, the Kremlin will have to announce total mobilization. But against the backdrop of the internal situation in the Russian Federation, such a step is extremely dangerous for the authorities.
According to Podolyak, considering Vladimir Putin’s psychotype, it is difficult to imagine that the Russian dictator will be ready to fight his own people and suppress mass riots.
Russia Fears Riots – Latest News
We remind you that in Moscow, stricter communication restrictions are being prepared before May 9, reports the Russian service of **BBC**. The media notes that on May 5, 7, and 9, mobile communication, SMS, and the operation of so-called “white lists” may be restricted in the capital of the Russian Federation.
The publication refers to sources close to Rostelecom and one of the operators. BBC does not clarify what exactly “white lists” mean.
In addition, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War have reported an increase in public dissatisfaction with the activities of Russian President **Vladimir Putin** against the backdrop of military defeats, increasing losses on the front, and strengthening repression within the country.
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