The dollar in Ukraine has sharply appreciated before receiving a tranche from the EU. Economist Oleksiy Plotnikov announced a forecast for the exchange rate for June 2026 and explained why the hryvnia will continue to devalue.
Dollar / © Associated Press
From the second half of May 2026, the dollar has sharply appreciated in Ukraine, and the hryvnia continues to depreciate without significant intervention from the National Bank. In June, the exchange rate situation may stabilize, but everything will depend on global events.
This was told to Novyny.LIVE by Doctor of Economic Sciences Oleksiy Plotnikov.
What will the exchange rate be in June — economist’s forecast
According to the expert, during May, the official exchange rate fluctuated within the range of UAH 43.80–44.29/USD. The current depreciation of the hryvnia is partly due to the expectation of the first aid tranche from the European Union, which is expected to arrive in early June.
At the same time, he predicts that in June, the official exchange rate is unlikely to cross the psychological mark of UAH 45/USD, and fluctuations will occur in the range of 20–40 kopecks.
The euro exchange rate in May remained almost unchanged and stayed within the range of UAH 51.26–51.72. This happened because the US dollar is currently strengthening globally. Since the euro exchange rate in Ukraine directly depends on the dollar, the value of the European currency will also change in June, following the American one.
“There are no special reasons for the dollar to appreciate from the perspective of supply and demand, but when the money from the EU arrives, it is better to credit it to the budget at the most favorable rate possible. This leads to what we are currently seeing in exchange kiosks,” explained Plotnikov.
The economist also explained why the American currency is more stable globally than the European one. According to him, the US economy is working more vigorously and actively. Because of this, even the court’s cancellation of Donald Trump’s unsuccessful decision on duties did not harm the dollar. He added that the dollar-to-euro exchange rate constantly fluctuates and does not stand still.
Exchange rate in Ukraine — latest news
Recall that on Friday, May 29, the dollar lost 3 kopecks, the euro decreased by 11 kopecks, and the value of the zloty fell by 2 kopecks.
The National Bank also set the official exchange rate for Monday, June 1. The dollar remained unchanged, the euro rose by 12 kopecks, and the zloty increased by 5 kopecks.
By the way, some Ukrainians may stop receiving payments from June 1, 2026. The Ministry of Social Policy explained that this applies to children among internally displaced persons and non-working migrants.
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