Russia is building military bases and expanding infrastructure along its border with Finland, preparing for a potential confrontation with NATO after the war in Ukraine ends, according to the German publication Welt.
Threat to NATO: Russia is preparing military bases near Finland / © Associated Press
Satellite images show Russia strengthening its military capabilities on the Finnish border. Security experts view this as preparation for the post-war period in Ukraine.
This is reported by the German publication Welt.
According to the publication, Putin may be preparing for three scenarios. Analysts note that Russian troops are still largely engaged in the aggressive war against Ukraine. However, the Kremlin is already preparing to increase its capabilities along NATO’s northeastern border after the war concludes. This conclusion was reached through an investigation by several Scandinavian and Baltic media outlets, which, along with experts, analyzed satellite imagery of Russian activity in the region.
The images reveal several locations where military infrastructure is being constructed or expanded. One of the most significant projects involves the expansion of a military base in Pechenga, in the far north, bordering Finland and Norway. Moscow intends to expand the brigade stationed there into a division, as announced by the Russian Ministry of Defense, increasing its personnel from approximately 4,000 to 10,000 soldiers. Satellite imagery shows that one square kilometer of forest has been cleared for this purpose. Over fifty buildings are currently under construction.
Near the city of Kandalaksha, at roughly the same latitude as the Finnish city of Rovaniemi, Moscow is building a new military base that will reportedly house an artillery brigade and elements of an engineering brigade, totaling around 2,000 soldiers.
A third major construction site is observable in Novaya Vilga near Petrozavodsk. No troops had been stationed there for decades; now, a garrison may be established for the new 44th Army Corps, which Russia plans to create in the Republic of Karelia.
“What we are currently observing in the regions adjacent to Finland is that Russia is building infrastructure to accommodate more troops,” states Matti Pesu, a senior researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA). While the priority for the Russian armed forces remains their involvement in Ukraine, “they are ensuring that the infrastructure is ready in case additional resources become available in the future.”
© Die Welt
Overall, experts cited in the report suggest that Russia plans to deploy up to 115,000 soldiers in the region – roughly equivalent to Cold War levels. Currently, this number is estimated at around 20,000.
Some observers interpret this move as preparation for a full-scale war involving conventional forces. “We do not believe they are deploying them there merely for show,” is quoted in the report from the head of Swedish intelligence, Thomas Nilsson. “This is about the capability to confront NATO in a larger conflict later on.”
Nilsson and other interviewed experts consider the next three years to be “absolutely the most dangerous,” as the defense capabilities of European NATO states are still developing.
There are various theories regarding the precise role that the new bases along the Finnish border would play in such a worst-case scenario. Moscow already established the Leningrad Military District in 2024, following Sweden’s and Finland’s accession to NATO, which now encompasses the entire northwestern region along the NATO border.
This region is crucial for Russia’s military strategy: Russia’s Northern Fleet is stationed on the Kola Peninsula, connected to the mainland by only a relatively narrow strip of land; this fleet is intended to ensure Moscow’s retaliatory nuclear strike capability in the event of war.
“However, Russian thinking includes the notion that defensive measures can also take place on the territory of neighboring countries. And this is where it becomes an existential issue for Finland,” says Matti Pesu.
Another possibility is that Russia is planning a diversionary maneuver for a potential attack on the Baltic states. Finland would be critical in supporting the Baltic states in a crisis situation – if Russia ties down NATO forces on the Finnish border, it would weaken defenses elsewhere.
The Finnish government, for its part, has taken precautionary measures and, among other things, recently lifted the country’s long-standing ban on nuclear weapons. Transit and temporary storage of nuclear weapons are now permitted for defensive purposes. This has drawn a sharp reaction from Russia.
Earlier, Ukraine’s Ambassador to Great Britain, former Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valerii Zaluzhnyi, stated that Ukraine would never be in NATO.
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