The decrease in prices on the “day-ahead” market (DAM) before the July state generation auctions was not an attempt to artificially lower electricity prices.
This opinion was expressed by Andrian Prokyp, Doctor of Economic Sciences, head of energy programs at the Ukrainian Institute for the Future.
According to him, for those who follow the electricity market, it is obvious that the price dynamics are explained by changes in the balance of supply and demand. In summer, prices are significantly influenced by weather conditions, consumption, as well as the volume of electricity imports and exports.
“For those who closely observe the electricity market, and in particular the day-ahead segment, as well as the factors affecting the supply and demand balance, it is clear that the assumption that the price drop is related to the bidding plan is extremely questionable,” Prokyp emphasized.
The expert noted that at the beginning of July, along with a decrease in electricity imports, exports increased, which also indicated a change in the market balance. In addition, similar price fluctuations have occurred before, particularly in the autumn of 2025, when the average DAM price also significantly decreased.
Prokyp drew attention to the fact that the results of the auctions themselves do not confirm the version of artificial price reduction. According to him, if electricity were truly sold significantly cheaper than market value, the demand for lots would be much higher.
“If suddenly the price became so attractive, then why didn’t industry actively buy electricity in these trades? Why, against the backdrop of low competition, did the final price of Ukrhydroenergo remain at the starting level on the first day? Why didn’t Energoatom’s lots increase significantly in price despite competition?” he noted.
Andrian Prokyp added that the current mechanism of long-term auctions is only the first step towards the development of forward trading. In his opinion, the Ukrainian market lacks full-fledged price indicators and risk hedging mechanisms, which have long been used in EU countries.
Earlier, energy expert Gennadiy Ryabtsev disagreed with the assumption of a possible impact of long-term contract auctions on the price collapse. According to the expert, only 2.4% of the total trading volume is realized through this mechanism, so it could not significantly affect the situation in the day-ahead market.
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